On July 1 last year, the National VI standards, the most stringent emission standards in history, began to be officially implemented in some major cities across the country. This triggered turmoil in the automobile market. For every participant in the automobile industry, It should be said that they all left a profound impact.
If the pain caused by this emission standard is only temporary, then the policy implemented one year later, that is, on July 1, 2020, will have a broader domino effect on the automotive industry. Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued an announcement on adjusting the requirements for the implementation of the National VI emission standards for light vehicles. Among them, the production of National V models and the licensing of National VI models are more stringent. Provisions.
The first article of the announcement clearly states that starting from July 1, 2020, the National VI emission standards for light vehicles will be implemented nationwide. The production of light vehicles with National V emission standards is prohibited. Imported light vehicles should comply with the National VI emission standards. Emission Standards.
It can be seen from this policy that the National VI emission standards will be officially "one size fits all" from July 1 this year, and there is no room for it. This is true across the country.
The National VI emission standards implemented on July 1 last year were only implemented in important first- and second-tier cities. Due to the strict National VI emission standards, the domestic car market sales situation is not ideal, coupled with the National V vehicle inventory Due to many factors and other factors, the implementation has been postponed several times, and it was not officially implemented in major cities until July 1 last year. The impact on the automobile market is still vivid in our minds.
This time it has been promoted to national unification, and it can be seen that the country has also made up its mind in this regard. The wailing caused by the implementation of National VI in some areas last year is still fresh in my memory, and now the arrival of full implementation is still a bit unexpected. This means that National VI standards will start from big cities and officially spread to small and medium-sized cities. Energy conservation and emission reduction have always been policies advocated by the country in recent years. The purpose of the comprehensive implementation of National VI is to ensure that future sales and registered vehicles must meet the requirements of National VI emission regulations. This policy orientation will be implemented for every public actual actions.
In fact, since entering 2019, most car companies have made sufficient preparations in this regard. Judging from the current data, there are 269 companies, 6,400 models, and 20,429,046 vehicles that have published national VI environmental protection information for light vehicles, covering more than 90% of the current automobile market. Mainstream passenger cars have been in the market for more than a year. The transition and transition were completed within a period of time, and even directly skipped National VI a to reach National VI b.
So, the full implementation of National VI is just a matter of time. Now that it has been officially implemented, major car companies are well prepared. Even though it is only more than a month away from July 1, vaccinations are here. Two years have passed. The National VI models currently on sale have basically met all the needs of the market. Even third- and fourth-tier consumers do not have to worry about not being able to buy National VI models.
If the full implementation of National VI emission standards will not have a great impact on car companies that are already prepared for this, then the ban on the production of light vehicles with National V emission standards will undoubtedly be a problem for some car companies. It's an ultimatum. From the ban on licensing to the current ban on production at the source, the new National Five models really have to say goodbye to us.
Affected by this year’s epidemic, the production and sales of many fringe car companies such as Lifan, Zotye, and Landwind almost came to a halt in February and March this year, and the models they produce are almost based on National Five, and sales areas are also concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities. If transformation is not achieved in this life-and-death situation and engine emission technology is upgraded in a short period of time, car companies will be faced with a situation where they will have no cars to buy, and it will only be a matter of time before they go bankrupt.
It can be said that the impact of this year’s epidemic and the new regulations will cause a new round of reshuffle in the automotive industry, which may exacerbate the difficulties of the automotive market. The problems faced by marginal car companies are far more serious than we imagined. The inability to stand up in the big waves is more due to their own insufficient strength. This "elimination competition" can be said to be the true survival of the fittest.
It is foreseeable that before the new regulations are implemented, that is, in the remaining month or so, some car companies will work overtime to produce National Five models, in addition to trying to sell more cars to recoup costs. , and the existing parts inventory must also be cleared. So there is a certain amount of doubt about the quality of this kind of rushed car model.
Judging from the details of the policy, there is a half-year transition period for National Five vehicles that have been produced so far, which means that models produced before July 1, 2020 can still continue to be used. On sale until 2021. Generally, models should not be stored for too long after they are produced. In order to clear the National V vehicles in stock as soon as possible, many dealers offer larger discounts. Many consumers want to buy the bottom at this time. Is it really appropriate?
In fact, the production of major automobile factories was seriously affected in February and March this year, and the number of models shipped was far less than the same period in previous years. And even if production began to increase in April, a large part of it was absorbed by the current automobile demand. Judging from the April 2020 "Car Dealer Inventory" survey report released by the China Automobile Dealers Association on May 10, the dealer inventory coefficient in April shrank significantly to 1.76, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 34.3%.
Judging from the current market prices of China V vehicles online, there is no major difference compared with before. Actual market and store surveys also reflect that market discounts are at a relatively stable level. The prices of some popular models have even risen slightly due to insufficient production.
With the arrival of May Day, all walks of life across the country have begun to fully recover. During the May Day period, the number of car buyers has surged, ushering in a "small peak" of sales. In addition, various regions have launched various measures to restore the economy. Car consumption policies, as well as the car market's continuous increase in promotional efforts, are currently in a significant heating up stage of car sales, and dealers will also have a good time to clear their inventories.
In other words, the current automobile production and demand are at a relatively balanced stage. Even new National Five cars that have entered the end of their lives still have certain market demand, so they want to be in this period. Sometimes you can't get extremely favorable prices by bargain hunting, but you can get relatively considerable policies and discounts. For example, in Foshan and other areas, there are thousands of yuan in car purchase subsidies. The specifics depend on local conditions.
Of course, it is not ruled out that there will be a problem of National Five models diving before July 1st. After all, judging from the situation last year, when brands such as Cadillac cleared their inventories, there were also problems in the 17th and 18th models. Wanti's scene of a stock car coming home. As long as the price is low enough, the inventory period is within three months, and the local area can carry the National V model brand, then these cars can still be bought.
The full implementation of National VI and the ban on the production of National V models this time is also at the time when the epidemic is about to end. Its arrival will not be a big surprise. It is just like an exam. Everyone is It's two hours of exam time. The outstanding students have almost finished writing their essays, but some students are still struggling with the multiple-choice questions. This gap is ultimately due to their usual homework. If consumers are teachers, they will naturally prefer students with good grades. This is the law of the automobile market. Whether it is production or destruction, there is actually a set of reasonable logic behind it. Where there is a cause, there must be an effect.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.