1. The main reasons for China's current insufficient aggregate demand are as follows:
1. Insufficient consumption is one of the reasons for insufficient aggregate demand, and the reason for insufficient consumption lies in insufficient demand caused by insufficient investment. The proactive fiscal policy implemented by our country is mainly the government's investment, which is effective, but it cannot be used for a long time. So we need to start private investment. Investment is a contract about trading now and in the future. A long-term contract cannot be realized without credit. At the same time, the essence of investment is borrowing, but at present, because of the restriction of credit problems, banks are reluctant to lend to private small and medium-sized enterprises, so large sums of money can only be deposited in banks. This is the main reason for the lack of total demand today.
2. The income of residents increased slowly. Over the years, the growth rate of residents' income is obviously lower than that of GDP, especially in rural areas, which is much slower than that of urban residents.
3. The income gap between residents is widening. This is manifested in the widening income gap between urban and rural residents. According to statistics, the income gap between urban and rural residents was 2.57: 1 in 1978 before the reform, 2.9: 1 in 21 and 3.1: 1 in 22. According to the actual living standards of urban and rural residents, some people estimate that the gap is 5: 1 ~ 6: 1. In addition, the income gap between rich families and poor families within urban and rural residents and the income gap between the eastern and western regions are obviously increasing. The widening income gap will inevitably lead to a decline in the consumption tendency of the whole society.
4. The residents' expectation of reducing income and increasing expenditure has not been alleviated. This is because the number of unemployed people in China has increased greatly, social security systems such as education, pension, unemployment and medical care are still under construction, and the reform of employee wage system lags behind the reform of housing commercialization and education investment system.
5. The product supply structure is inconsistent with the consumption demand structure. Over the years, under the low-level repeated construction, the excess production capacity and the supply rigidity formed by ineffective supply have limited the guiding role of demand on supply, and also limited the space for supply itself to create demand, which is one of the reasons for the shortage of total demand.
second, in view of the deflation phenomenon in China's macro-economy, such as insufficient total social demand, continuous decline in the overall price level and slow economic growth, China has decisively adopted a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to achieve effective coordination between the two policies, so as to expand total social demand and promote economic growth. This is the first time that China has begun to attach importance to the important role of fiscal policy and the coordinated application of the two major policies, which has achieved good results.
1. Expand the implementation of fiscal policy. The implementation of these policies has effectively promoted the transformation from savings to investment, expanded the total social demand and ensured the stable growth of the national economy.
2. Implementation of prudent monetary policy. Since 1998, the central bank has implemented a prudent monetary policy, expanded the money supply, improved the credit structure, promoted the reform of state-owned commercial banks, and developed direct financing. In recent years, the money supply has been greatly increased, and the direct means of regulation has been gradually transformed into indirect means of regulation, and the three major monetary policy tools have been greatly developed.
Consumer credit, rural credit and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises have greatly increased; The money market is also gradually improving and maturing. The effect of monetary policy is gradually emerging. The loan scale has increased greatly, the consumer price level has stopped falling and rebounded, and the investment of enterprises and the consumption of residents have also increased greatly. It can be said that a prudent monetary policy is still relatively effective.
3. Coordination of the two major monetary policies. On the one hand, the proactive fiscal policy itself includes strong support for monetary policy, financial issuance of treasury bonds, and bank purchase, which in itself is the use of bank funds, which is to play the role of monetary policy; Moreover, the increase in the number and variety of national debt issuance also provides an operating tool for the central bank's open market business. On the other hand, the investment of treasury bonds as capital in infrastructure projects has also created conditions for banks to increase loans. In addition, the Ministry of Finance also issued 27 billion special treasury bonds to increase the self-owned capital of state-owned commercial banks and enhance their capital adequacy ratio.
4. the implementation effect of fiscal policy and monetary policy. In 1997, the Southeast Asian financial crisis affected China's export demand, and the economic system reform and the imbalance of supply structure led to a serious shortage of domestic demand. The combined effect of these two aspects caused the current deflation in China. Under this macroeconomic background, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China have decisively adopted a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The implementation results in the past two years show that this policy coordination is still relatively effective.
It expands the total social demand, and reduces the interest rate level while increasing government investment, reducing the offset of "crowding out effect"; At the same time, the general price index also stopped falling and rebounded in 2, and the operating mechanism of state-owned enterprises and state-owned commercial banks began to be completely transformed; The macro-economy has maintained a relatively fast growth rate. The cooperation of the two also plays a good role in complementing each other's strengths. Monetary policy provides a more relaxed financial environment for the implementation of fiscal policy, reducing the negative impact of "crowding out effect"; At the same time, fiscal policy provides an effective policy tool for monetary policy and creates favorable conditions for expanding the money supply.
in the future, due to the fact that the total social demand has not been effectively met, the public's willingness to consume is not strong enough, and the credit structure has not been reasonably adjusted, China will still implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to maintain the stability of the price level and stimulate the stable economic growth.
Extended information:
China's economy can maintain the current overall good development momentum, which is inseparable from the central government's policies and measures to strengthen and improve macro-control. In the face of the complicated and severe situation, on the one hand, the central government insists on implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, on the other hand, it improves the forward-looking, targeted and flexible policies, and makes timely and moderate pre-adjustments and fine-tuning according to changes in the situation, playing a set of "combination boxing" for steady growth.
the State Council pointed out that steady growth should be placed in a more important position, the total scale of social financing should be adjusted prospectively in the fourth quarter, the overall plan for the reform of the income distribution system should be formulated, and the real estate market regulation policy system in line with China's national conditions should be promptly studied and formulated.